{"id":17269,"date":"2013-11-12T17:12:32","date_gmt":"2013-11-12T17:12:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.its.ac.id\/news\/2013\/11\/12\/ramalkan-listrik-agar-keputusan-pasar-tak-salah\/"},"modified":"2013-11-12T17:12:32","modified_gmt":"2013-11-12T17:12:32","slug":"ramalkan-listrik-agar-keputusan-pasar-tak-salah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.its.ac.id\/news\/ramalkan-listrik-agar-keputusan-pasar-tak-salah\/","title":{"rendered":"Ramalkan Listrik Agar Keputusan Pasar Tak Salah"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Agus terlihat percaya diri saat mempresentasikan disertasi yang berjudul <em>Forkasting Beban Jangka Pendek Menggunakan Teknik Autoregressive Composition Fuzzy Forecasting<\/em> (ARCF). Dia cukup tenang menyampaikan detail penelitian itu dihadapan dosen penguji. Hadir pula pejabat dari Universitas Udayana pada kesempatan ini.<\/p>\n<p>Setelah dia memaparkankan hasil penelitian selama 20 menit, tim penguji mengajukan sejumlah pertanyaan. Pria asal Bali ini pun menjawab dengan meyakinkan. Karena itu, <em>promotor <\/em>Prof Mauridhi Hery Purnomo dan <em>co-promotor<\/em> Prof Imam Robandi beserta penguji lain sepakat untuk memberikan predikat memuaskan.<\/p>\n<p>Dalam disertasinya, Agus menawarkan metode baru dalam peramalan beban listrik yaitu ARCFF. Metode ini dapat membuat perkiraan besar beban puncak listrik pada hari-hari yang waktunya tidak pasti, misalnya hari-hari di kalender hijriyah atau lainnya.<\/p>\n<p>Menurutnya, peramalan ini sangat penting untuk meramalkan kebutuhan sistem beban dan harga listrik di suatu daerah. &#8221;Peramalan ini digunakan untuk membuat keputusan pasar yang tepat bagi perusahaan pembangkit listrik,&#8221; tutur pria kelahiran 48 tahun yang lalu ini.<\/p>\n<p>Dalam peramalan ini, data historis yang dibutuhkan hanya lima, yaitu data beban puncak sebelum hari libur (h-4, red) dan satu data di hari-h. Kelima data tersebut akan digunakan untuk meramalkan besar beban puncak di hari libur. &#8221;Peramalan ini lebih memberikan batas nilai yang mungkin, sehingga hasil yang diharapkan masih mampu menampilkan batasan nilai-nilai yang diizinkan,&#8221; jelas pria berkaca mata ini.<\/p>\n<p>Lanjutnya, metode ini mempunyai akurasi yang tinggi. Dari &nbsp;hasil validasi menunjukkan, metode ini dapat memberikan hasil peramalan yang akurat yaitu dengan <em>error<\/em> kurang dari 2,42 persen. &#8221;Estimasi tersebut dilakukan untuk tahun 2005 hingga 2012,&#8221; jelas &nbsp;Dosen Universitas Udayana ini.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Behind the Scene<\/strong><br \/>Cerita lucu sempat terjadi selama masa perkuliahannya. Prof Imam Robandi mengatakan, ia sering menyuruh Agus untuk meminta data tentang beban listrik di pulau Bali. &#8221;Tapi apa yang dibawa? Dia malah bawa Salak Bali,&#8221; ungkap <em>co-promotor<\/em> ini yang sontak membuat peserta sidang tertawa.<\/p>\n<p>Pun demikian saat sedang melakukan riset, Agus sering merebus ubi saat di laboratorium. Bahkan anak-anaknya juga sering dibawa ke laboratorium. &#8221;Ini yang sekolah anaknya atau bapaknya?&#8221; ujar Imam. (ady\/nir)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Satu lagi riset yang dihasilkan oleh lulusan doktor ITS. Sidang terbuka program doktor Jurusan Teknik Elektro ITS kali ini menghadirkan Agus Dharma sebagai <em>promovendus<\/em>, Selasa (12\/11). Ia meneliti tentang peramalan beban listrik jangka pendek saat hari libur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-berita-utama"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ramalkan Listrik Agar Keputusan Pasar Tak Salah - ITS News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.its.ac.id\/news\/ramalkan-listrik-agar-keputusan-pasar-tak-salah\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ramalkan Listrik Agar Keputusan Pasar Tak Salah - ITS News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Satu lagi riset yang dihasilkan oleh lulusan doktor ITS. 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